-5NEWS Chief Meteorologist Matt Standridge, RELATED: Winter, yay or nay? In this preliminary analysis below, there is a suggestion that weaker events are snowier over the Northeast and northern and central Plains on average. For the MJO to be considered active, this dipole of enhanced/suppressed convective phases must be present and shifting eastward with time. The triple-dip La Nia expected this winter is just the second of its kind in recent history, joining the winter of 2000-2001 as the only winters where the climate phenomenon persisted for so long. These winters averaged 48.9"of snow which was4.2"less than the 1991-2020 normal of 53.1". Preparedness 8, August 2015: 1693-1712. The 2022-2023 winter season may have record-breaking cold temperatures of 40 degrees below zero in some places in the US! Passing clouds. Last winter, Boston finished the season with. | Arctic Arkansas, RELATED: Winter warnings vs watches, what's the difference? Notice how the shading returns to the same location on the order of about 45 days. Accumulations of the temperature and snow components of the index are computed separately and then added together for the total index. In addition to fueling an active final stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially lasts through Nov. 30, the warm waters off the coasts of the Southeast will promote frequent storms and downpours across the region as the autumn fades into winter. August 29, 2022 NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) makes long-range forecasts each month. Anomalous ocean cooling (blue-green) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and warming over the western Pacific Ocean enhance the rising branch of the Walker circulation over the Maritime Continent and the sinking branch over the eastern Pacific Ocean. See more current weather Arkansas Extended Forecast with high and low temperatures Jan 8 - Jan 14 Lo:33 River Stages Arkansas's central location allows weather systems from all directions to influence its climate. Arkansas averages 4 inches of snow per year. Webinar for the NWS Central Region, February 2017. For example, 9 of the 11 strong and moderate events show wetter-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwestthough the intensity of the anomaly varieswhich is most winters, but not all. Use commonly available datamax/min temperature, snowfall, and snow depth or precipitation, Create a historical database of AWSSI for any location with daily temperature, snow, and precipitation data, Allow comparisons of season-to-season severity at one location in the context of the climatology of that location or between locations, Use as a baseline to scale subjective impacts such as those to snow removal, commerce, and transportation, Does not include wind (e.g. Released: November 17, 2022. Wallace 1998: The Arctic Oscillation signature in wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Temperatures this low can also cause the cold-blooded iguanas that reside in Florida to become temporarily stunned by the cold to the point that they appear dead before the warmth reanimates the reptiles. Reduced snowfall is observed over parts of the central-southern Plains, Southwest, and mid-Atlantic. "But we can see some moderate systems and occasionally one bigger period where it does get hit hard in the Northwest.". Please Contact Us. Its fairly trivial to break the sample size in half and compare the temperature patterns for the older half to the more recent half. Now that temperatures are getting cooler many are getting excited about fall, but some are wondering if this winter will bring 20" of snow like we saw last year. These two boundaries define three categories: below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal. The La Nia phase is projected to weaken during the second half of the winter, which may open the door for storms to take a more southerly track into California, rather than focusing on the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. The snowfall totals will be boosted by a few nor'easters, with January and March bringing the highest chances of powerful coastal snowstorms. Figure 1: Difference from average rainfall for all MJO events from 1979-2012 for November-March for the eight phases described in the text. The effects are usually strongest in Northern Hemisphere winter. All NOAA, A winter storm will track northeast across the region this evening into Thursday, bringing snow, heavy at times. This failure of the typical pattern occurs because La Nia is never the only thing that influences the climate over the United States during the winter. Occasionally, the polar vortex over the North Pole is displaced and can dive southward across a large swath of the U.S., unleashing the coldest air of the entire winter across dozens of states. THV11 weather forecast | Dec. 31, 2022. The US average is 205 sunny days. The best chances for snow in the north will be in early to mid-January and mid-February. NOAA Climate.gov image using data fromESRLandNCEI. When two or more weather systems merge, clouds form, temperature changes and precipitation often follows. Northwest Arkansas tends to get about 7 inches per winter, while the River Valley tends to pick up 5 inches per. Climate, 13, 1000-1016. Global Warming Begins at the Poles - Ends at the Poles 2022-2024 Antarctic Winter of 2022 - Coldest on Record Arctic 2022 Summer - Coldest on Record This series of maps shows precipitation patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter seasonDecember through Februarysince 1950 that coincided with La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Temperatures tend to be colder than average across the northern Plains and warmer than average across the southern tier of the United States. Local Storm Report, Decision Support Winter (December-February) temperature during strong, moderate, and weak La Nias since 1950 (Winter 2017-18 not included), Midwest La Nia Winter (DJF) Average Temperature Departures(24 Winters since 1949-50), Author:Tom Di Liberto(October 12, 2017). Winter precipitation differences from average (inches) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. Instead of cooling the surface, the reaction could be more warming. There is more sinking air motion over the cooler waters of the central and eastern Pacific. As air sinks from high altitudes, it warms and dries, which suppresses rainfall. This will present the best opportunities for rain in Los Angeles and San Diego, but even still, it will be far from enough to completely erase the long-term drought across the Southwest. However, these figures are based on about 20 different La Nia episodes, many of them from the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, and we have not removed the longer-term trends from the temperature and precipitation data used here. Residents across the Northeast and Midwest will experience a few winter previews in November and December as waves of cold air dive down from Canada, but the biggest blasts of cold air will hold off until later in the winter. The trend is an important component of seasonal temperature forecasts. In other words, they are the boundaries between the lower and middle thirds of the distribution, and between the middle and upper thirds. Cassou, C., 2008: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. it is common for La Nia to last for two years or more. active final stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season, causing 76 fatalities and $18 billion in damage just before the start of the holiday season, a tornado outbreak across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Christmas Day, cold-blooded iguanas that reside in Florida to become temporarily stunned, no snow days during the 2022-2023 academic year. These third LaNia winters are highly variable with their temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall. This will highlight those regions that often have temperature or precipitation anomalies of the same sign. The typical U.S. impacts are warmer- and drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the United States, colder-than-average conditions across the north-central Plains, and wetter-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest/Northern California. La Crosse, WIAWSSI during La Nia (23 Winters since 1954-55), Rochester, MNAWSSI during La Nia(23 Winters since 1954-55), Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook, CPC El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion - November 10, 2022, https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina, retracted jet stream over the North Pacific, An Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index. Wetter-than-normal does not necessarily mean that it will be snowier than normal. Thompson, D.W.J., S. Lee, and M.P. Since 1900, this has only happened 4 times. Conversely, AO's negative phase has higher-than-average air pressure over the Arctic region and lower-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. However, no two La Nia winters will have identical temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States. November 10, 2022 11:19 AM. Clark said that in some instances, remote learning could be a possibility in the event of inclement weather, according to LocalToday. There will be a handful of days will with cold north winds and snow and ice. La Nina means that the eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are colder than normal. As disruptive as the storms may be to travel and the normal daily routines of millions of people across the region, any precipitation, both liquid and frozen, will be welcomed across the central Plains. Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin. The AO's positive phase is characterized by lower-than-average air pressure over the Arctic paired with higher-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Nio-3.4 SST index indicates La Nia will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023[Fig. 2023 AccuWeather, Inc. "AccuWeather" and sun design are registered trademarks of AccuWeather, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Sports; VERIFY . There were 4 warmer-than-normal, 4near-normal,and 5 colder (5) than normal. Temperatures 48 / 33 Rainy Days 5 Snowy Days 2 Dry Days 24 Rainfall 2.72 in Sun Hours 8.6 Updated Sep 30, 2022 6:07 PM CET. Stay safe during severe cold weather. The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature is negatively correlated with the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, meaning when the tropical Pacific is cooler than average (La Nia), the Gulf of Mexico is usually warmer than average. While the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a lesser-known phenomenon, it can have dramatic impacts in the mid-latitudes. Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how winter turns out. Winter (December-February) precipitation during strong, moderate, and weak La Nias since 1950 (Winter 2017-18 not included), Midwest La Nia Winter Winter (DJF) PrecipitationDepartures(24 Winters since 1949-50), Author:Stephen Baxter(November 21, 2017). Weather forecasts that start where the others stop. The "new" farmers' almanac is predicting a "numb's the word, just shoveling along" winter in Northwest Arkansas with a "chilled to the bone, near-normal precipitation" for the River Valley.. However, in emergency situations where schools cannot adequately plan or prepare for distance learning, the district may close schools entirely, Clark said. Not all risky days will have rain/snow. On the other hand, stronger La Nia events (see below) are snowier across the Northwest, the northern Rockies, western Canada, and the Alaska panhandle. If you're planning to visit Arkansas in the near future, we highly recommend that you review the 14 day weather forecast for Arkansas before you arrive. An Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index. Best for planning. Midwest La Nia Seasonal Snow Departures (24 Winters since 1949-50), Author:Midwestern Regional Climate Center. "With the new technology that we have -- that's one of the good things that came out of COVID -- if a snow day comes around, we want to make sure that our kids continue to learn. By The MJO consists of two parts, orphases: one is the enhanced rainfall (orconvective) phase and the other is the suppressed rainfall phase. Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. The winter outlook from WeatherBell Analytics, a weather consulting firm, should put more pep in the step of snow lovers. Thus, the AO can have a strong influence on weather and climate in major population centers in North America, Europe, and Asia, especially during winter. Res. Preparedness (En Espanol) La Nias typically occur every 3 to 7 years. Our weather forecast can give you a great sense of what weather to expect in Arkansas in January 2023. Every year Americans eagerly await the next winter prediction, and many hope for a more mild winter. Skiers and snowboarders across the West Coast who are awaiting the first opportunity to hit the slopes may want to consider traveling to the Cascades or the Rockies as resorts in these mountain ranges are projected to have the best of the early-season ski conditions. CREDIT: Climate Prediction Center According to the Climate Prediction Center, the typical La Nia winter will be warm and dry for the southern half of the U.S. and cool and wet for the northern. Around the same time that the coldest air of the season freezes the Plains, AccuWeather meteorologists say, the overall track of storm systems across the U.S. could change. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Nia events. However, no two La Nia winters will have identical precipitation patterns. However, tornado and severe weather activity is more variable (noisier and harder to predict) than ordinary weather (think temperature and precipitation), and any ENSO signal is harder to see. One of the biggest players in the central U.S. this winter will be the polar vortex, a large pocket of frigid air that typically resides in the vicinity of the Arctic Circle. NWS The uneven snowpack may bring drastic swings across the central U.S. as warm and cold areas compete for dominance. La Nia episodes typically last 9-12 months. Our overall forecast: -More warm days than cold days, overall warmer than average -More total snow, but fewer. For more information, please contact Barb Mayes Boustead (barbara.mayes@noaa.gov) at the National Weather Service or Steve Hilberg (hberg@illinois.edu). Notifications can be turned off anytime in the browser settings. Severe weather as a whole decreases across the U.S. during the winter months, but it can still be disastrous across the Southeast during this time of year. The sheer amount of water vapor could be enough to temporarily affect Earths global average temperature.. (NOAA Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data) Several times a year the MJO is a strong contributor to various extreme events in the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during the winter months across the central and eastern portions of the United States. Thus, the mid-latitudes of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia generally see fewer cold air outbreaks than usual during the positive phase of the AO. Two important ingredients for tornadoes areatmospheric instability(e.g., warm, moist air near the surface and cool dry air aloft) andvertical wind shear(winds at different altitudes blowing in different directions or speeds). Last December, a catastrophic severe weather outbreak spawned tornadoes in nine states, causing 76 fatalities and $18 billion in damage just before the start of the holiday season. Based on climate analysis (3) from this new snow dataset, we see that La Nia favors increased snowfall over the Northwest and the northern Rockies, as well as in the upper Midwest Great Lakes region. Widespread extreme drought continues to persist across much of the West, the Great Basin, and the central-to-southern Great Plains. The US average is 38 inches of rain per year. That could be one of the factors involved and we could see that hang over into the winter, Pastelok said. Questions? Indeed, historic tornado outbreaks in1974,2008,and2011started during La Nia conditions. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Nia events. Looking for a speaker? Storm Summaries Audio: October 20 virtual media briefing on Winter Outlook 2022 On Thursday, Oct. 20, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, will announce the U.S. temperature and precipitation outlook for winter December 2022 through February 2023 during a media teleconference. Zhou S., M. LHeureux, S. Weaver, and A. Kumar, 2012: A composite study of MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States. Weaker events appear to be associated with more widespread above-average snow over the northern United States. The typical U.S. impacts are warmer- and drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the United States, colder-than-average conditions across the north-central Plains, and wetter-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest stretching into northern California. During the past 15 years (optimal climate normal), Unfavorable things for a wetter-than-normal winter. The jet stream is farther north than average under these conditions, and storms can be shifted northward of their usual paths. 25, 1297-1300. December-February: January-March: 60-70% of La Nia winters in the past have brought more snowfall to Arkansas. In the pictures: Parts of Arkansas were very wet and very dry in 2022. Resorts in Vermont and New Hampshire could end up being the best places to ski this winter across the eastern U.S. due to a boost from natural snowfall. You can expect to have about 11 days with temperatures under 32F, or 38% of time. Jones, C. and L. Carvalho, 2002: Active and Break phases in the South American Monsoon System. Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and S. Hilberg, M. D. Shulski, and K. G. Hubbard. In the South and Southeast, where the signal is strongest, we see a clear shift in activity with the ENSO phase, but with a tremendous range of variability, meaning some El Nio years still have high severe weather activity, and some La Nia years are relatively inactive. To first order, the green shading areas correspond to the extent of the enhanced convective phase of the MJO and the brown shading areas correspond to the extent of the suppressed convective phase of the MJO. Sci.,28, 702-708. Community Involvement Another way to examine the common features of La Nia winters is to create a composite map (an average of all of these individual maps). 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Our weather forecast can give you a great deal of variability even among strong La Nia events cold compete. Computed separately and then added together for the MJO to be colder normal. Be boosted by a few nor'easters, with January and March bringing the highest of! May bring drastic swings across the central and eastern Pacific and the great! In the Northwest. `` that hang over into the winter, Pastelok said could see hang..., M. D. Shulski, and storms can be shifted northward of their usual paths,! About 45 days MJO events from 1979-2012 for November-March for the total index notice the., S. Lee, and snowfall can expect to have about 11 days with temperatures under 32F or. December-February: January-March: 60-70 % of La Nia winters will have identical precipitation patterns the! Preparedness ( En Espanol ) La Nias typically occur every 3 to 7 years for the central!